Webinar held on 18 March 2021 (4pm Singapore time)
It was my privilege to be speaker in the talk organised by The Sydney Southeast Asian Centre, Malaysia and Singapore Association of Singapore and the publisher of my book Journey in Blue, World Scientific Singapore. The talk was hosted by my friend, Loke Hoe Yeong who is a political analyst based out of London. Hoe Yeong is familiar with Singapore politics and has written books and articles on the topic, and was kind enough to write a generous endorsement of my book which you can find inside the book itself.
Here’s a summary of what was in the 1-hour video (not verbertim, just the gist I documented as I re-watched the recording):
Q1 – My experience in GE2011 when I lost by just over 300 votes as a rookie politician
Didn’t know what to expect. Confidence grew as campaign went on. The ground sentiments were good and even the press took notice that the campaign went from a non-contest to a hot one and gave Joo Chiat some spotlight. As newcomer with relatively low profile in a GE with hot seats in Aljunied and elsewhere, I had to find my way to navigate the lack of public profile with persistent day and night daily house visits and to rely on word of mouth. Quietly confident at counting night. See-saw emotions throughout – seemed to be leading. But one polling district was bad and pulled down the votes.
Biggest upset that night was loss of Aljunied GRC, first time ever the PAP lost a GRC.
Q2. WP MPs having to work hard. What were my / our experiences like?
3 areas for MP to be responsible for: Town Council (only for elected MPs), Parliament, grassroots at party level,
NCMPs get 15% of an MP’s allowance and have no official constituency duties. We still have our day jobs. Budget time challenging – 2 weeks continuous sittings, from 11am to 7-8 pm. Elected MPs more busy – TC most challenging due to difficult and sudden transfer – AIM (with one-month termination rights to use of information system), change of managing agent, new MPs need time to be familiar with town council work. Changeover in a hostile manner and quite a bit of controversy from the handover.
Q3. Your book presents many valuable insights, and is like a manual on the workings of the Singapore opposition, where none have previously existed. Clearly, the WP has institutionalised and built up the opposition like none others before. How did you take on the government in Parliament, given their “army of bureaucrats” behind them and the data they have?
We don’t see them as opponents to be taken down. I was focused on the issues and wanted to find a way to dig for data and surface the matter for more discussions. A few ways to get data – Questions in parliament (PQs), asking people familiar e.g. former civil servants familiar with policy making, people in industry, doing my own research. Learnt to sharpened my PQs to prevent generic and not useful answers coming back. Need to also first do my own ground work to understand the issues and get own data first before filing PQs. Cited an example on my research in the full enrolment in student care in schools by personally calling many such centres myself and finding that many could not even put students on waitlist.
Q4. My highlights in parliaments?
Parliament is a good place to spotlight issues. Cited example in preschool and student care, foreign scholarships, etc. As opposition, we can ask uncomfortable questions. Nothing super memorable but gratifyingly when changes did happen as we pushed them, though the policy makers could also have wanted to do changes along those lines as well.
Q5. The outcomes of votes in Parliament are foregone conclusions – the PAP has more than 2/3 supermajority. What do you think WP/the opposition can do in this landscape?
Even though opposition does not have 1/3 seats, parliament is like a modern day gladiator arena. The PAP is conscious of how they appear to people, always looking at the next GE and the one after that. Government is about maintaining trust and confidence of people. They are afraid of losing more seats and for their vote share to go down too much. Even if we do not have 1/3 but we hit hard at issues and PAP knows it will affect their standing with the people, they will respond. Maybe they may not directly acknowledge the opposition when they change but if they feel they need to change like they did after GE2011, they will. Parliament is a platform to spotlight issues. In 2011, only 6 seats out of 87 seats were lost but it was a big deal to the PAP and they have to be mindful how to win back the trust and votes.
Q6. David vs Goliath battle in parliament. Opposition is constantly providing challenge to PAP. If PAP is not responsive, they will lose more seats in future. Your opinion?
Elections is not just the few weeks of campaigning. A lot of things happened between GEs. In 2011, PAP lost 1 GRC, lost the Hougang by-election in 2012 and Punggol East in 2013. PAP took 2015 to stem the tide with death of LKY and SG50. The ruling party is always mindful what happens in next GE.
Q7, The LKY repent comment in 2011 to voters in Aljunied GRC. Did that flip the election or other things were happening in the background?
I was not actively watching Aljunied GRC. I was engrossed in my own campaign in Joo Chiat in 2011. Swing voters / middle ground tend to be turned off when they perceive ruling party to be arrogant or not responsive. Not sure if that alone turned the results. In 2011, there was a fear of total opposition wipe out with LTK and CST stepping out of their SMCs. LTK took a good team with him into Aljunied GRC, which is an important factor.
Q8. My choice to enter in 2011 – did the increase in NCMP positions from 3 to 9 influence my decision to enter politics.
Zero effect. I was not interested in NCMP post. No one will be interested to contest to be an NCMP. I just wanted to be there to give a good contest to the PAP. My main motivation was about the future of Singapore – LKY was aging and health was declining. What if the PAP is not able to run the country in future. Who can take over? Gave a business analogy of needing strong competition to companies with monopolistic powers to force them to change. Did not think the NCMP positions are there to change anything in politics in Singapore. Can do away with the position but let’s also review the GRC system – do away with it or make them real small and have fewer GRCs.
Q9. What I thought of the NCMP position which was created by the PAP to allow opposition yet cater to the people’s desire to want a PAP government.
Always PAP’s way to tell Singaporeans that only they have the A team, that only they know how to run the place else people will repent. Glad that people in Aljunied, Hougang, Potong Pasir in the past and now Sengkang did not buy the story. Need strong candidates in the opposition though. I joined in 2011 because I thought the WP had people with decent credentials in 2006. People want to join when they find likeminded people they can work and identify with in the team. When opposition has stronger candidates, when people are confident their constituency can be well run, they will be willing to vote the opposition and NCMP positions may no longer be needed as there will be more than 12 eventually.
Q10. Are people watching opposition performance. Why does PAP have such a strong hold on parliament since 1959? People lack confidence in opposition and only giving incremental support?
People have become risk averse. Opposition job is to show they can be respectable, responsible and rational. Elected opposition MPs know they have the burden as people are watching. PAP is a seasoned fighting machine. They will find a way to fight back after the loss in 2020, as they did in the past. Those going into opposition and elected have the responsibility to do a good job because progress of opposition depends on what they do. No one wants to be one-term opposition MP though PAP will fight back strongly. PAP will always try to paint that only they can make policies. I do not agree. Policymaking is not something unique to PAP.
Q11. In 2015, Joo Chiat SMC disappeared from electoral map. What happened?
Ask the EBRC (Electoral Boundary Review Committee) which reports to the Prime Minister’s Office. EBRC report is so thin and short on justifications. Hardly anything had changed in the demographics of Joo Chiat to justify a change in electoral boundaries. And boundary changes are always announced not long before a GE is called. In 2015, announced in late July and GE was early Sep. I had 6 weeks to form team and campaign. Stated in book how I ended up with Marine Parade and how the team formation was made.
Q12. Researchers on Singapore’s opposition parties have talked about the key conundrum they face: if they are too radical, the vast majority of voters are turned away; if they are too moderate, the PAP’s technocratic superiority in policymaking etc will easily beat them. WP has been dubbed/criticised a ‘PAP-lite’ party, both by the PAP and some of the other opposition.. Do you think that is a fair comment?
WP did not start out to be a PAP-lite. A party’s policies and broad directions are shaped by the key leaders and these in turn attract like-minded members. When LTK took over as Sec-Gen, he had his moderate stance and started shaping the party along that direction. In other countries, e.g. UK and Australia, how radically different are those parties that can form the government? Every party will shift along the way. Even the PAP shifted to the left, especially after GE2011, shall I say to be more WP-lite?
I think too much is made of PAP’s technocratic superiority in policymaking. I don’t find that necessarily true from my experience. When we take an issue to lock them on, it is from the point of whether it is good for Singapore.
We take a stand based on what we believe in and if people vote us in, then that’s good because we are doing things that they support.
(Hoe Yeong went on to share about the opposition labour party in UK where he is in. Party is debating internally whether to moderate back to centre because they were deemed to be too far left and had lost the highest number of seats in over 70 years)
Q13. What goals for opposition. Form government in say 3 elections?
I do not speak for WP and definitely not for opposition. Examined the 2 breakthroughs. In 2011, Aljunied GRC breakthrough came with LTK coming out, teaming with Sylvia Lim and a very good team to make the breakthrough. In 2020, WP’s Sengkang GRC team did not have any experienced elected MPs. Young and new candidates taking down 3 political office bearers. Shows that it is possible even with new candidates. Of course, a lot depends on various other conditions and a strong party branding.
Having said that, a lot depends on the PAP, especially on how it handles the 4G transition, and in future the 5G, and whether the PAP can deliver on their promises. Trust is the most important currency in politics. If people lose confidence in the PAP, Singapore at least now has credible people in the opposition side, from across different parties to step up.
Cited example in business. For new nimble new companies to make breakthrough, usually will be when there are sudden opportunities such as policy or technology changes disrupting the landscape. Incumbent needs to be alert and able to adapt and new parties need to capture the opportunities.
Q14 My ‘gentlemanly’ assessment of the PAP 4G.
Anyone taking on responsibility to run the country will try as they know best. Also depends on how Singaporeans perceive them to be able to do so. World is rapidly changing. Old solutions may not work. We have become risk averse and relying on tested solutions which may no longer work. Not training our people to be more resilient and more risk taking (sorry, I mispoke in the interview as risk averse). I am not in the best position to judge the 4G, but would have like to see them being more daring and going beyond text-book answers.
Q15. Would opposition make bigger progress if election is all SMCs.
In past, GRC was configured as fortress to keep opposition away with few SMCs for opposition to try for. The fortress will have 1 to 2 ministers to anchor. In 2011 when the first fortress fell, it fell to seasoned opposition politicians. But in 2020 when the second fortress fell, it was to relatively new and young politicians. West Coast, East Coast came close to losing. Some SMCs did well, such as Bukit Panjang, Bukit Batok and Dr Ang (Marymount SMC). Over time, opposition as a whole has assembled strong slate of candidates and doomsday scenario that the PAP had painted did not happen – rubbish piled up three-storey high, value of property dropping. Aljunied GRC residents did not repent in 5 years, not in 10 years and next round will be 15.
Will be quite interesting if it was all seats were SMCs. There will be good individuals chipping away at SMCs and making small gains. Hard to say if these individual losses would be equal to 1 or 2 more GRCs being lost. Point is that gap between the candidates from leading opposition parties and the PAP has been closing up over the years and people are having more confidence now in the opposition.
Q16. GRC system being created for minority inclusion in parliament.
Pointed out (as Hoe Yeong also did), that the first elected opposition MP post independence was minority. Also Michael Palmer in a single seat in 2011, Murali Pillai in Bukit Batok won against Chinese candidates. Also Aljunied GRC has three minorities (Faisal, Leon and Pritam) when it only needed one. The race issue of protecting minority representation has been overplayed by the PAP, including in presidential election.
I have no issue with doing away with GRC – the PAP has. If we really need some minority representation, keep GRCs really small say to 3 persons and have fewer GRCs (Qualified that these are my personal opinions).
Q17, Party identity – Is WP shaping its identity beyond being ‘NOT PAP’? Party support – seems to be from certain social economic status. Also how to get votes from various communities such as Malays and new citizens?
Party identity – All opposition parties have to take on the PAP so they must first be NOT PAP. LTK started building the branding of rational, responsible and respectable. Whoever wants to be successful as opposition and even later when given the chance to form the government, must have these ingredients and to also have Singapore as the focus of our attention in our policy making – how to benefit Singapore. Still being continued under current leadership.
Party support – I have not studied any detailed data. From my experience, support is well round. For example, WP won Aljunied GRC with around 60% support in 2020. It is a very diverse background – rich and middle class private areas in Serangoon and Paya Lebar and the rental and smaller flat areas. Support was good throughout. My own experience in Joo Chiat SMC in 2011 with some 98% in private property. Not true that the private house owners will not support as they might be afraid the value of their property will drop. Also cited GE2020 when we have so many volunteers, people from all walks of life – from businessmen to young lawyers, doctors, professionals and from blue collar workers, helping in a pandemic GE. People are more accepting of opposition. I believe it is the beginning of the mainstreaming of opposition.
Journey in Blue is available in all major bookstores and autographed copies from shopee.com/faithyee.
Yee Jenn Jong 